Happy New Year and Welcome to 2025!!
I hope that you had a great holiday season and had some downtime and deep belly laughs with friends and family! As we sit here in mid January, with LA still burning, my gratitude for my own family, friends and amazing clients is present with and for me. Not to mention this beautiful part of the world that we get to call home! I look forward to connecting with you in this new year, one that in all likelihood will be "interesting"......
The Big Story (National):
Economic (policy) uncertainty elevated mortgage rates
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts in 2024 provided some relief to some borrowers, but mortgage rates have remained stubbornly high. As of January 2, 2025, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 6.91%, its highest level in nearly six months, according to Freddie Mac. Even with the Fed lowering the federal funds rate by a full percentage point over the past four months, mortgage rates have not fallen proportionally, remaining about 0.3 percentage points higher than their 6.6% average in January 2024.
Home prices declined modestly in Q4 2024, showing atypical price stability in the second half of the year. Because prices didn’t contract significantly in the second half of 2024, they will easily rise to new highs in 2025.
Since September 2024, the Fed has cut rates by 1%, bringing the interest rate that banks charge each other for short-term loans to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. In 2025, we only expect the federal funds rate to decline by another 25 to 50 bps.
As is typical in this space, market details and summaries included below. Both the San Francisco and Marin home markets exhibited "softer" characteristics in Q4 of 2024. The average $/sq ft along with median sale prices declined each month from September through December and the Days on Market increased each month. There was a jump in the market post election, in terms of activity in November, and then the market settled into it's typical December/holiday holding pattern. Details and data below on all of this.
Additionally below is some good news on crime dropping in San Francisco, and, I think, an expectation that this will continue as the new Mayor comes into office, as well as the awesome possibility of an extension of the Lost Coast Trail, which seems like a great idea to those of us who like to get outside and off the grid.
If you live in and around Tam Valley, keep an eye out for my semiannual print edition of Tam Valley Market News, reflecting data from our neighborhood from the back half of 2024 and the year overall! You can also check out brief market highlights from that brochure
in the online edition here.
If there is anything I can do for you, just reach out!
Again Happy New Year, and see you soon!
Local News
Crime in S.F. dropped to a two-decade low in 2024. Here’s where it fell the most
Reported crime in San Francisco fell to a two-decade low in 2024, according to police data, dropping further than it did nationwide.
December 2024 Market Review
Marin County
Stats at a Glance - All Property Types
December 2024 Data by Area - Single-Family Homes
Seasonality & Long-term Trends
# New Listings on Market: All Property Types 2019-2024
Median Sales Price: All Property Types 2014-2024
Local News
Could California’s famous Lost Coast Trail soon be extended?
That's a question federal land managers will likely consider in the coming months as they draw up a public access plan for a large, scenic coastal property in Mendocino County – about 30 miles north of Fort Bragg – that was just transferred to the Bureau of Land Management.
READ MORE
San Francisco
Stats at a Glance: All Property Types
Seasonality & Long-term Trends
# New Listings on Market: All Property Types 2019-2024
Median Sales Price: All Property Types 2014-2024
Note: Above data reflects that reported to NorCal MLS Alliance MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers approximate. Outlier data adjusted when identified.
